Noticing that most Americans who died of COVID were either extremely elderly or else had a preexisting condition, Powerline’s John Hinderaker had an interesting theory. Even if COVID had never arrived on our shores, many or most people who died from the virus were so ill and/or so elderly, they would have died anyway within months or certainly within the next year or two.
With this idea in mind, Hinderaker wondered if he would find a lower than normal total U.S. death rate going forward (because so many of those whose deaths would have been recorded within months or a year or two had already died.)
He combed through a stack of death certificates of individuals who died of COVID in Minnesota which he defined as any certificate that contained the word COVID. “When you look at the conditions from which most covid victims suffered, it seems remarkable that they were still alive,” he noted.
Hinderaker found that his theory was, in fact, correct. The following CDC chart shows the weekly number of deaths in the U.S. soaring through the pandemic, peaking in early January, well above the level of normal death projections. Then, the line begins to fall at a steady rate.
At some point in March, the number of weekly deaths crosses the “upper bound threshold for excess deaths” line and continues to drop. As of May 1, weekly deaths are well below projections.
It will be interesting to see if this rate remains low or lower than projected deaths. Of course, within one to two years, we would expect projected deaths and actual deaths to converge once again as the COVID effect exhausts itself.
So in a sense, those Wuhan deaths are now being made up.
I think the mortality statistics over the next couple of years will confirm that in most cases, people who died with “covid” on their death certificates would have died, in any event, in a matter of months or perhaps a year or two. This is why we are now seeing mortality dip below demographic norms: people who otherwise would have died in April 2021 died in, say, October 2020 instead. If this is the case, it will expose the irrationality of devastating the lives of younger and healthy people through shutdowns, school closings and mask mandates, while those who were at meaningful risk were almost exclusively those who, as one doctor put it, had one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.