Last week, The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed written by Mark Makary, M.D., an epidemiologist and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. It was entitled, “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April.” Its lede informed us, “Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.”
Makary explains that the “natural immunity” of those who have had the virus is “far more common than can be measured by testing.” Specifically:
Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
“Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth.”
Makary is far from alone in his optimism. The New York Times published the results of a survey of 175 experts in early February who “largely agreed that it was safe for schools to be open to elementary students for full-time and in-person instruction now.”
So why are so many Biden Administration officials, including Biden himself and Dr. Fauci providing such pessimistic scenarios? Fauci is telling us we may be wearing masks through 2022, even those who’ve been vaccinated.
The NY Post Editorial Board explained it in a weekend editorial. Democrats want to pass the $1.9 trillion COVID spending bill. There’s very little in this bloated behemoth that will actually go toward helping everyday Americans cope with pandemic-related problems.
But there’s a whole hell of a lot in the bill that will help Democrats pass projects that have been on their radar for years. $1.9 trillion dollars is a massive amount of money. And it buys a lot of pork.
In an appearance on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom” last week, Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) said, “This isn’t a coronavirus bill. This is a left-of-Lenin, neo-socialist wish list. He added that it was “chock-full of spending porn” that had nothing to do with the coronavirus pandemic.
Obviously, if the end of the pandemic is within our grasp, there would be no need to pass it. That’s why Democrats are ignoring the good news.
…President Biden, after vowing the nation will have enough vaccine doses by July’s end to vaccinate every American, just said he only hopes for a return to normal by “next Christmas.” Huh?
“I don’t want to overpromise anything here,” “A year from now,” he told CNN, “I think that there’ll be significantly fewer people having to be socially distanced, having to wear a mask.” That’s not avoiding overpromising, as he claimed: It’s outright telling everyone to expect yet another year of economic and social devastation.
Biden’s chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, says the worst of the pandemic “might be” behind us. Yet he’s also telling Americans they’ll need to wear masks (maybe two at a time) at least through 2022 — even if they get vaccinated.
This is absurd: Our leaders should be nonstop pushing reluctant Americans to get jabbed so we can all get on with our lives.
Hospitalizations and deaths keep dropping, even as variants have gained ground: Deaths dropped 20 percent these last two weeks. The UK variant predominates in Britain, Switzerland, Denmark and Israel — and all are also seeing cases dive.
…while America’s vaccination process has rolled out more slowly than it should’ve, it’s still moving inexorably along.
More than 13 percent of Americans have gotten at least one dose, and the majority are health-care workers or those in nursing homes or other high-risk settings.
Add to that the number of us estimated to have already been infected — 35 percent of Los Angeles County and more than half of Miami-Dade County, for example — and you can see why Johns Hopkins prof Marty Makary predicts we’ll have herd immunity by April.
And the most at-risk Americans have gained immunity. Data scientist Youyang Gu estimates that the number of “susceptible” Americans, those over 45 without immunity, has fallen from a third of the country at the start of the year to 10 percent or fewer now.
Cases in nursing homes fell more than 80 percent from late December to early February. When deaths spiked over the holidays, they actually fell at nursing homes.
Perhaps it’s just that normalcy makes it too hard to justify the rush to pass a $1.9 trillion “relief” bill filled with Democrats’ pet projects. We’d rather not think cynical politics is behind Biden’s gloom, but it’s hard to see any other reason he’s denying that the pandemic’s end is staring us in the face.
Just as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused to pass a COVID relief bill prior to the election for political reasons, the Biden Administration doesn’t want Americans to know that herd immunity and therefore the return to normalcy, is right around the corner.
The pandemic has been such a great gift to the Democratic Party, it will be hard for them to let it go.
Elizabeth is the founder and editor of The American Crisis. She is also a contract writer at The Western Journal and a previous contributor to RedState, The Dan Bongino Show, and The Federalist. Her articles have appeared on HotAir, Instapundit, RealClearPolitics, MSN and other sites. Elizabeth is a wife, a mom to three grown children and several beloved golden retrievers, and a grandmother!